The two major contenders for this year’s presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), both from Northern Nigeria, are leaving voters, influencers, and opinion leaders in a quagmire, as to who to support.

The duo of President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar have three things in common: They are both from the North, both of Fulani extraction, and are both septuagenarians. Their presidential ambitions, the upcoming 2019 polls, have torn many groups, including the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), one of the popular elite pressure groups in the region, apart. The cracks became pronounced when the group’s convener, Professor Ango Abdullahi, was quoted as saying that the forum has dumped Buhari for another Northern presidential candidate.

“[Buhari was dumped] because of his failure to fulfil the basic conditions they handed to him in 2015 when they rejected then president Goodluck Jonathan and elected him,” Abdullahi, a former Vice Chancellor of the Ahmadu Bello University (ABU) Zaria, was quoted as saying.

“Two of the conditions we gave Buhari upon his assumption of office were that he should take concrete steps to address the abject poverty and underdevelopment in the North and he has woefully failed to marginally address any of them,” he said.

Swiftly, the trio of Gen. Paul Tarfa (rtd), Capt. Bashir Sodangi (rtd) and Sani Daura countered Ango’s claims, saying: “ Buhari deserves re-election because of his excellent performance and the fact that replacing him would turn the hand of development backward.”

“No-one can deny the reality that the country was reaching a breaking point. With a committed leadership and sincerity, President Buhari has achieved immeasurable success in all fronts during the last three years,” they chorused. According to them, in a statement they jointly signed last week, “We sincerely believe that the Buhari administration is doing well and should be re-elected to consolidate on the foundation of progress which has been laid by it.”

Daily Trust Saturday reports that this was not the first time that the forum would be divided over presidential candidates. At the build-up to the 2015 general elections, a rift between the Northern elders led to the formation of the Northern Elders Council (NEC), a group which supported the candidature of former President Goodluck Jonathan when NEF showed preference to then candidate Buhari.

Specifically, the splinter group under the leadership of nonagenarian Alhaji Tanko Yakasai was formed to check the NEF which was against the candidature of Jonathan. In the end, Buhari defeated their candidate and the elders in the NEF had their way.

However, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), regarded as the apex socio-cultural organization of the region, has distanced itself from the position of the NEF, saying Nigerians will decide whether a president has failed or succeeded. Now, 41 days to the presidential/ National Assembly elections, the division in the ranks of the elders has been generating tension, with varying opinions being expressed by critical stakeholders.

A former governor of Kaduna State, Alhaji Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa described members of NEF as “opportunistic elders” and that the crack in the forum has been there over the years. The octogenarian, in a phone interview, said the problems have nothing to do with the North, or even the country at large. “It’s purely an opportunistic issue. But that of Ango [Abdullahi] is not opportunistic, but rather political ignorance.  They should always protect the interest of the North by using strategic ways,” he said. He added: “Our interest in the North is free and compulsory education at both primary and secondary levels. This is the only way to bridge the 40-year educational gap between the North and the Southern part of this country.”

Musa continued: “If we can bridge the education gap, any other division is unnecessary. The major cause of our challenges in Northern Nigeria is educational backwardness. If we are not educated, no matter what we do, northerners will remain irrelevant in the political scene of the country,” he said.

Describing the division in NEF as unnecessary, Musa said since all the candidates are northerners, there was no need for feuds or divisions. “We are also not supporting Buhari or Atiku, but we believe that despite the circumstances we see Buhari to be better than Atiku, even though there is not much of a difference between the two. This is because Buhari has proved to be incapable just as Atiku is also not capable,” the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) chieftain said.

A member of the PDP Board of Trustees, Chief Sam Nkire, told Daily Trust Saturday that a majority of Northern political bigwigs were for Atiku, adding that Buhari’s rejection by NEF would add value to Atiku’s campaign. “I was one of those who campaigned for President Buhari in 2015. I followed him to all the nooks and crannies of Nigeria. And mind you, I have voted three times for Buhari. I voted for him in 2007, 2011 and 2015. I had always believed in Buhari. I thought he was a good man, until he won election in 2015. I discovered a change. It’s like he has been hijacked, like he is not the one ruling the country, because he is no longer like the Buhari I voted for consistently for three times and worked for,” he said.

“I heard him recently saying that he would reward people that worked for him when he wins again. This is the kind of president we have now; you cannot be sure of what he can do,” Nkire said.

A founding member of the PDP, Alhaji Aminu Yakudima, told Daily Trust Saturday that NEF has been polarised, broken into three, and that it would hardly make any meaningful impact on the political landscape. “I don’t think the rejection of President Buhari by some members of NEF is a threat to his political ambition. I mean, achieving a second term bid. The forum does not hold the entire Northern Nigeria firmly. Again within the organisation, there is division. And do not forget, there are splinter groups with the same vision. There is in place also, the Northern Elders and Stakeholders Assembly which also have the same objectives; some are for Atiku, while some are for Buhari. Some are neutral. So achieving cohesion in Northern Nigeria will never hold as far as they are concerned. Again, most of them don’t even vote,” he said.

The presidency’s hope

Buhari’s media aides were unavailable for comment, but a presidency source said members of the NEF have always been divided. “The Northern Elders Forum has never spoken with one voice and even in 2015 they were not with us. They worked against us but the masses were with us, hence the victory we recorded. We are not perturbed at all because it is still fresh in our minds the role they played in the last election. Most of them, including some traditional rulers, worked against us in 2015. So, what are they saying? Ask Ango Abdullahi whether he fully supported [Buhari] last time. Yakasai boldly supported Jonathan, as we all know. It was the masses who voted for Buhari in 2015, they are still with him, thus no cause for alarm,” the source disclosed.

At a recent event in Abuja, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo said the battle for next year’s presidential election is between the forces of retrogression and the masses. “There is a gang-up by the discredited elite against [Buhari]. They prayed for him to die, he didn’t die. When he came back hale and hearty by the grace of the Almighty God, they mourned while Nigerians rejoiced. The fear of Buhari makes people desperate, even crazy,” he said.

A ‘legal angle’?

Yusuf Ali (SAN) said the position of NEF members would promote democracy. “If there are two children that want to contest a position, all members of the family will not queue behind one. So, I don’t see anything wrong in that. After all, when Obasanjo and Falae were contesting in 1999, the Yorubas didn’t have unanimity. And at the end of the day, people would queue behind the candidate they want,” he said.

For Abdulhamid Mohammed, the NEF members are not expected to come out categorically to support any of the candidates because that could influence the outcome of the election. He said there is scepticism about Buhari presidency since his popularity has been coming down. He also is of the view that the endorsement by NEF, which he described as a private association for the promotion of Northern interest, would not have any effect on the outcome of the 2019 presidential election. “That means they would definitely be between the devil and the deep blue sea if two prominent northerners are contesting for the same position. Thus, it would seem like the dilemma of the private association for them to choose between Atiku and Buhari. And that is why you find that there is a division,” he said.

Mohammed also said he doesn’t think that the dilemma affecting a private association will pose a challenge to the general views of the people, or lead to any breakdown of law and order. “Mark you, these same members of NEF were also divided when Buhari was contesting against the then president Goodluck Jonathan. And then it did not still have any negative impact on the polity,” he said.

For his part, a former National Legal Adviser of the PDP who later dumped the party and is currently  a Honorary Special Adviser to Governor Kashim Shettima of Borno State on Infrastructure,  Barr. Bashir Maidugu, described NEF members as ‘a group of old men’ and that he is not surprised by their endorsement of Atiku. “But the truth is that they are not the ones to determine who will be president. And our people, the Northerners, are aware of what is on ground. The three years of Buhari in office is a blessing to us,” he said.

Analyse this, analyse that

A Kano-based political analyst, Dr. Abbati Bako, said the problem with Northern elders has been lack of serialized strategic planning based on digital knowledge and on calendar timeframe. “This means that they don’t have knowhow on the direction of globalization policy (international public policy by UN agencies) to be implemented in Northern Nigeria. Second, the two major presidential contestants from the north – Buhari and Atiku’s policy documents are of identical twins. This means that both policy documents are conventional policies (ordinary) not classical policies as far as globalization policy documents are concerns,” he said.

Bako called on the Northern leaders and all other stakeholders to unite themselves and present serialized strategic planning-based knowledge and calendar timeframe for the development of the region and the nation at large, “rather than making unnecessary arguments amongst themselves.”

On the strengths of the candidates, Bako said Buhari’s battleground areas are the South-South and the South-East, while Atiku’s is the South-West geopolitical zone. “The South-South and South-East may be swing areas in 2019 presidential contest. The political sky of the nation is still hazy and unclear. But Buhari must have 50% political incumbency power on his side. While Atiku has nothing similar at the moment and his chances depend largely on his political strategies and how that could be communicated to the electorate,” he said.

Another political analyst from Port Harcourt, Chief Jackson Lekan Ojo, said Buhari’s rejection was laughable. “I don’t want to mention any of them but people like Prof. Ango Abdullahi who said he would not support Buhari are laughable. He supported Buhari in 2015 because Atiku didn’t contest election. So they are leaders of the North; they are not leaders of the entire country. When Atiku was in the ACN, Prof. Ango Abdullahi supported him; it didn’t lead them anywhere.”

Ojo continued: “So some of them are big names in the North but do they have any electoral value? What percentage of followership are they enjoying? All those people supporting Atiku this time have no single electoral value to his presidential campaign,” he said.

Also, the Executive Director of the Civil Society legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Malam Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, told Daily Trust Saturday that there may not be any negative implications on the cracks in NEF. “I don’t see any implication over the ongoing different views on both candidates by the NEF because both candidates (Buhari and Atiku) share certain identities. They are both from the North, they are Muslims, and of Fulani extraction. Again, they have also been contesting elections,” he said.

However, Rafsanjani said there are some fundamental issues that the forum should be concerned with as the elections draw nearer. “Northern and National unity, unemployment, developmental projects in the North as well as poverty, violence and criminality affecting Northern Nigeria, and the need to have a presidency that will ensure peace and stability in Nigeria through inclusiveness and diversification of opportunities for all. These are the views being expressed in the North now. So both candidates must demonstrate their commitment to that if elected,” he said.